Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic 2026-10-06
In the classical risk model with positive relative safety loading and adjustment coefficient , tilting the ruin defective renewal equation gives a proper renewal equation. The key renewal theorem yields . The constant is positive if the denominator is finite and zero if it is infinite; the claim-size density provides the nonarithmetic hypothesis.
Lundberg inequality 2026-10-06
For a classical risk model with adjustment coefficient , the ultimate ruin probability from capital satisfies . Stop the exponential continuous-time martingale at ruin or a finite horizon, bound its value on the ruin event, and then increase the horizon.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 31 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Consider the secant slopeThe moment-generating function is continuous on the interior of its finite domain and has right derivative . Thus as . For every fixed positive claim amount , the function is strictly increasing in : its derivative has numerator , since this numerator starts at zero and has derivative as a function of . Taking expected values preserves the strict inequality. Therefore is continuous and strictly increasing. Equivalently, the strictly convex transform has strictly increasing secant slopes from the origin.
If , the assumed blow-up of gives . If , choose with . Such an exists because the claims are positive. Then , so again . This exponential lower bound is needed at an infinite endpoint: mere divergence of would not, by itself, establish divergence of .
The target strictly exceeds the limiting slope . The intermediate value theorem and strict monotonicity therefore giveMultiplying by gives the defining adjustment coefficient equation. The zero root of the undivided equation is excluded. This is the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use for the premium income rate, reserving later for the smaller exponential decay rate. In the classical risk model, the surplus isHere is the relative safety loading. The aggregate claims form a Compound Poisson process. Define , so ruin occurs when . By independent increments and the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum,Thus is a nonnegative continuous-time martingale with , because the adjustment coefficient makes the exponent vanish.
Let . Apply the optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time . On , , soLetting increase proves the Lundberg inequality and the unscaled limit:
For the precise asymptotic, putThe given exponential integral identity makes a probability density. Multiplying the given defective renewal equation by turns it into the ordinary renewal equationFor clarity, the version of the key renewal theorem used here is: if the interarrival law is nonarithmetic, has mean , and is directly Riemann integrable, the locally bounded solution of this renewal equation satisfies . The infinite-mean version gives zero for nonnegative directly Riemann integrable .
All the hypotheses can be checked here. The density gives a nonarithmetic distribution. The Tonelli theorem givesFurthermoreThus is continuous and integrable, and . On a mesh of width , the difference between its upper and lower sums is at most ; its upper sum is at most . This proves direct Riemann integrability rather than assuming it. Also by the Lundberg inequality, so the solution is locally bounded. Its renewal representation is , where and ; the residual after iteration tends to zero on compact intervals because sums of positive interarrivals tend to infinity.
Writing , the tilted interarrival expected value is . The key renewal theorem gives the Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptoticIf , the same formula is interpreted as . A positive finite asymptotic constant requires ; this extra integrability is not explicitly stated in the paper.
For the final two-exponential case, evaluate the defective renewal equation at zero:One can identify the adjustment coefficient without silently assuming . For , setIt is finite and positive. Integrating the nonnegative terms of the defective renewal equation, using the Tonelli theorem, first shows that is finite and then givesAs , because . By monotone convergence theorem, . The integrated tail distribution in the classical risk model has density , so by the tail integral formula for moments. Hence solves the adjustment equation, and its stipulated uniqueness implies . Finally the displayed form of gives the remaining constantsIn particular the decay exponent and the coefficient do not affect or . The in these final answers is the printed decay rate, not .