Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 48 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Define the autoregressive polynomial and the moving-average polynomial . The standard causality and invertibility root criteria for an ARMA model areIn the usual minimal autoregressive moving-average model, the two polynomials have no common roots. Under that convention, these are the necessary and sufficient root conditions for a causal and invertible representation with the given noise. Without minimality they remain sufficient; shared factors must be considered before claiming necessity.
To see why the conditions work, both ratios and are analytic on a disc of radius greater than one. Their power series coefficients therefore decay geometrically and are absolutely summable. The backshift operator then gives a well-defined mean-square convergent causal time-series representationFiltering white noise by these fixed coefficients gives a weakly stationary process. The identity verifies the original equation. Multiplication by the absolutely summable inverse of also shows uniqueness among finite-variance stationary solutions. Similarly gives the invertible time-series representation.
Comparing coefficients in derives the first of the ARMA coefficient recursions:Here for negative , , and for , so in particular . For the inverse filter, compare coefficients in . With , for , for , and for negative indices, this givesThe minus sign in the inverse recursion comes from moving the nonconstant moving-average terms to the other side.
For the first-order model, the standard uncancelled conditions are and . The geometric power series expansions giveThus the ARMA(1,1) causal and inverse coefficients areAt these give and , including zero-valued parameters without any negative powers. If , the filtered process reduces to and all later coefficients vanish. This common factor cancellation in an ARMA model is why the root inequalities should not be advertised as necessary for every nonminimal parameterization. The stated inequalities still ensure uniqueness for the original equation as well as the desired causal and invertible filters.