Back-calculation of infection incidence
= Back-calculation of infection incidence
{title2=$\mu(t)=\int_0^\infty h(t-s)f(s)ds$}
Observed symptom-onset intensity is the <convolution> of past infection intensity with the incubation delay density: $\mu(t)=\int_0^\infty h(t-s)f(s)ds$. Back-calculation infers the infection history from that relation. Include pre-observation infections unless their absence is known.