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Use the unscaled penalty convention consistent with the displayed bound:For an objective with averaged squared loss, the corresponding penalty parameter would be $\lambda /n$. We retain the unscaled $\lambda$ throughout.

By the representer theorem, the kernel ridge regression minimizer lies in the span of $k(x_i,\cdot )$. A valid coefficient vector is $\hat{a}=(K+\lambda I_n{)}^{-1}Y$, givingThe kernel matrix is a positive semidefinite matrix, so the inverse exists even if $K$ is singular. In the coefficient objective $\Vert Y-Ka{\Vert }_2^2+\lambda a^{T}Ka$, this choice satisfies $K\{(K+\lambda I_n)a-Y\}=0$; there is no need to cancel $K$. The function itself is unique because of the strictly convex squared Hilbert norm. The matrix $H$ is the kernel-ridge hat matrix in the present normalization.

Let $m^0=(f^0(x_i){)}_{i=1}^n$. Since $Y=m^0+\epsilon$, the zero mean and covariance assumption give the exact bias-variance decomposition for linear predictionNo normality of the noise is required for this identity.

Choose an orthonormal eigenbasis $v_i$ of $K$, with eigenvalues $d_i\ge 0$. Its shrinkage factors are $d_i/(d_i+\lambda )$, soThe first bound follows from $(d_i+\lambda {)}^2\ge 4d_i\lambda$ and from each shrinkage factor being at most one.

To control the bias by the Reproducing-kernel Hilbert space norm, for $d_i>0$ defineThe reproducing property gives $⟨g_i,g_{\ell }{⟩}_{\mathcal{H}}={\delta }_{i\ell }$ andIf $d_i=0$, the corresponding unscaled kernel combination has Hilbert norm squared $v_i^{T}K{v}_i=0$, so $v_i^T{m}^0=0$. There is therefore no bias component in a zero-eigenvalue direction. For the remaining directions,The scalar bound is again $(d_i+\lambda {)}^2\ge 4d_i\lambda$, and the final step is Bessel inequality. Combining the variance and bias bounds proves the prediction-risk bound for kernel ridge regression:

Writewhere $\epsilon$ and ${\epsilon }^{\ast }$ are independent, centered, and have covariance matrix ${\sigma }^2{I}_n$. ThenThe deterministic term is orthogonal in expectation to the two centered random terms, and the random terms are independent. Since the hat matrix is a symmetric idempotent projection of rank $p$,while $\mathbb{E}\Vert {\epsilon }^{\ast }{\Vert }^2=n{\sigma }^2$. ThereforeIn this bias-variance decomposition for linear prediction, $\Vert (I-H)\mu {\Vert }^2$ is squared model bias, $p{\sigma }^2$ is variance from fitting $p$ coefficients, and $n{\sigma }^2$ is irreducible noise in the future response. Enlarging the model tends to reduce the first term while increasing the fitted-model variance, which is the bias-variance tradeoff.