Shouting at zero locks in , producing terminal payoff . Its pathwise values are 20 on and on each other path. Waiting and applying part (c) instead gives values 20 on , 9 on , and zero on . Therefore waiting dominates shouting now, strictly on events of positive probability.
Under the optimal binomial shout option with signed lock-in, discount the latter terminal payoffs using independent risk-neutral transitions:
The time-one option value is after an up move and zero after a down move. These values also reproduce the price by one-step backward induction.
Figure 1.
Optimal shout decisions and the four path-dependent terminal payoffs
. Details.
The recombining stock price 99 has two different claim payoffs, because has an earlier lock-in while does not. Keeping the path history is essential.