Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 42 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use positive ability parameters in the Bradley-Terry model, so . If the course instead denotes log abilities by , apply the following calculation to their exponentials; the ordering is unchanged. Up to a factor independent of the abilities, the likelihood function isThe observed wins form a directed cycle, so a finite maximum exists. The Bradley-Terry likelihood Hessian is negative definite on contrasts of log abilities, giving uniqueness up to common scaling. We can therefore find the maximum-likelihood estimate through the Bradley-Terry score equations.
Player 1 has one observed win in two comparisons. Its score equation iswhich simplifies to . By the model's scale invariance, set and write , , with . Player 2's score equation becomesThe left side of the polynomial equation is strictly increasing on , starts at zero, and tends to infinity. For , its unique solution is . For , its value at one is , so its solution satisfies . The Three-player Bradley-Terry comparison cycle consequently givesThus there is a complete tie when each directed edge is observed once, and otherwise the decreasing ranking is 2, 1, 3.
Three-player Bradley-Terry comparison cycle 2026-10-06