Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 44 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Let be the state-price-density values at the higher and lower risky payoff. Pricing the two assets givesSolving yieldsBoth values are positive, and the two independent equations make the solution unique. The payoff matrix has nonzero determinant, so this is a complete two-state market. The actual Arrow state prices, including physical probabilities, are and . Their sum is , the discount factor. Normalizing gives risk-neutral probabilities . Thus itself is not a probability density of mean one: its mean is because the riskless asset earns interest.