Discrete back-calculation with endpoint cohorts
= Discrete back-calculation with endpoint cohorts
{title2=$\mu_k=\sum_{i<k}h_iq_{k-i}$}
For equal-width time bins and infections assigned to bin-end time $t_i$, let $q_\ell=\Pr((\ell-1)\Delta\leq T<\ell\Delta)$. The next onset-bin mean is $\mu_k=\sum_{i<k}h_iq_{k-i}$. Assigning infections instead to bin starts shifts the index by one. Bin probabilities integrate a delay density; they are not the density itself.