Edge-exposure martingale (source code)

= Edge-exposure martingale
{title2=$M_i=\mathbb E[Z\mid\mathcal F_i]$}

Expose the independent <edge> indicators of a <binomial random graph> in a fixed order, and set $M_i=\mathbb E[Z\mid\text{the first }i\text{ indicators}]$ for an integrable statistic $Z$. This is a <martingale> from $\mathbb EZ$ to $Z$. If changing one <edge> changes $Z$ by at most $c$, coupling the unexposed indicators gives $|M_i-M_{i-1}|\leq c$, permitting the <Azuma-Hoeffding inequality>.