Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 ib Paper 2 20H Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
All specified nearest-neighbour probabilities are positive, making the birth-death chain irreducible. The row sums give and for . Write for the hitting time of , and on let . The first-step equations giveDefine and . The successive increments are proportional to , and normalization at yieldsThe chain cannot remain forever in a fixed finite set avoiding zero: from every state in that set there is a uniformly positive chance to leave or hit zero within finitely many steps, so iterating the Markov property makes indefinite confinement have probability zero. Thus avoiding zero is the limit event of hitting every upper boundary before zero. Sending shows that the probability of never hitting zero from one vanishes exactly when . At zero, return is immediate with probability and otherwise begins an excursion from one; irreducibility then givesFor positive recurrence define and . First assume recurrence and let be the first return from zero. For each fixed , the expected number of visits to before is finite: each visit to has a positive chance of following the successive downward steps to zero before another visit, so its visit count has a geometric tail. Also .
Each finite excursion starts and ends below every edge , so its upward and downward crossing counts of that edge are equal. Their expectations, by the Markov property, are and . Hence and . Tonelli's theorem applied to the nonnegative occupation counts gives the excursion weights of a reflected birth-death chain formulaConsequently positive recurrence implies the requested finite sum. Conversely, if , then . But , so and the already proved recurrence criterion holds. The occupation calculation is therefore valid and gives a finite mean return time. ThusAdding the finite term does not change convergence.