Expected absorption time in an illness-death model
= Expected absorption time in an illness-death model
{title2=$E_1(T_D)=1/(a+b)+a/((a+b)c)$}
With initial exit rates $a$ to the advanced living state and $b$ directly to death, and death rate $c>0$ from the advanced state, the expected time to death from state 1 is $1/(a+b)+a/((a+b)c)$. The first term is initial <holding time>; the second weights the advanced-state <holding time> by the <probability> of reaching it.