Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 101 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write . If , then for either possible sign,as long as . Thus the process stays above , is strictly increasing, and induction gives . If , the symmetric argument makes the process strictly decreasing to . This proves the first assertion pathwise, with the strict sufficient threshold .
For an arbitrary starting point, a proof is needed that the process actually reaches such a region. Fix and choose an integer soAt a block starting at time , if , the next signs all equal to give . If , all signs instead give . Conditional on the current natural filtration, the selected block has probability , by independence of future signs. If , iterated conditional expectation givesThis is a geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability, so almost surely. Once outside, the sign is preserved and, for every future noise sequence,Consequently the explosive affine recursion with symmetric bounded noise hasThe block argument closes the gap between escape from a large initial value and escape from an arbitrary one; no assertion about the absence of atoms in an infinite random series is necessary.