Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 33 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The Nadaraya–Watson estimator isFor the unit-width box kernel, it averages the responses with design points in . Define it to be zero if that window contains no observations; the supplied small-denominator bound must refer to a defined estimator.
Write , and . Set . On ,This is the absolute error bound for a ratio estimator with a controlled denominator; it does not require the numerator and denominator to be independent.
The conditional expectation definition of the regression function givesAt this interior point, the Taylor theorem expansions are and . Multiplying and using the symmetric interval removes the odd linear term. More precisely,This cancellation underlies the interior absolute-error rate of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator.
For the variance, independence between observations givesConditional on , the second moment is . The bounded conditional variance, local boundedness of , and boundedness of consequently make the expectation at most . Thus . By the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,The auxiliary result supplied in the question makes the expected error on equal to . Combining both events, with , provesBoth the squared-bandwidth bias and the inverse-square-root window-count error have this order. The supplied separate consistency result for the design-density estimator is not needed once the stronger small-denominator expectation bound is used.