For integrable random variable and nested sub-sigma-algebras , the tower property saysThe finer-information conditional mean can be averaged within each coarser group, recovering the coarser-information conditional mean. Conversely, conditioning an already -measurable conditional mean on leaves it unchanged. Both orders therefore recover when the information is nested.[ref]
For the finite example in law of total expectation, exact knowledge of gives the finer mean itself. Averaging within the groups recovers two and eight. Forgetting the group then gives . The nesting condition is essential; iterated conditional expectation over nonnested sigma-algebras describes why arbitrary successive conditioning cannot simply be replaced by conditioning on an intersection.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 201 1 f Solution 2026-09-28
The equation fails for general nonnested sigma-algebras. On the four-point space with uniform probability, letand take . The intersection is trivial, soBut is -measurable andwhich is zero on and is not almost surely . This exhibits the failure of iterated conditional expectation over nonnested sigma-algebras.