Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic 2026-10-06
In the classical risk model with positive relative safety loading and adjustment coefficient , tilting the ruin defective renewal equation gives a proper renewal equation. The key renewal theorem yields . The constant is positive if the denominator is finite and zero if it is infinite; the claim-size density provides the nonarithmetic hypothesis.
Defective renewal equation 2026-10-06
A defective renewal equation is where the nonnegative kernel measure has total mass less than one. Its renewal representation is a convergent sum of convolutions. Exponential tilting can turn the kernel into a probability measure, enabling the key renewal theorem.
Direct Riemann integrability 2026-10-06
A function on is directly Riemann integrable when its upper and lower sums on an equal-width mesh are absolutely finite and converge to the same finite integral as the mesh width tends to zero. A locally absolutely continuous integrable function with integrable derivative has this property: the upper-minus-lower sum is bounded by mesh width times its total variation. The derivative bound therefore gives bounded variation as well as tail control. This stronger form of integrability is a hypothesis of the key renewal theorem.
Nonarithmetic distribution 2026-10-06
A probability distribution is nonarithmetic when it is not concentrated on for any . Every law with a probability density is nonarithmetic. This hypothesis removes lattice oscillations from the key renewal theorem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use for the premium income rate, reserving later for the smaller exponential decay rate. In the classical risk model, the surplus isHere is the relative safety loading. The aggregate claims form a Compound Poisson process. Define , so ruin occurs when . By independent increments and the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum,Thus is a nonnegative continuous-time martingale with , because the adjustment coefficient makes the exponent vanish.
Let . Apply the optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time . On , , soLetting increase proves the Lundberg inequality and the unscaled limit:
For the precise asymptotic, putThe given exponential integral identity makes a probability density. Multiplying the given defective renewal equation by turns it into the ordinary renewal equationFor clarity, the version of the key renewal theorem used here is: if the interarrival law is nonarithmetic, has mean , and is directly Riemann integrable, the locally bounded solution of this renewal equation satisfies . The infinite-mean version gives zero for nonnegative directly Riemann integrable .
All the hypotheses can be checked here. The density gives a nonarithmetic distribution. The Tonelli theorem givesFurthermoreThus is continuous and integrable, and . On a mesh of width , the difference between its upper and lower sums is at most ; its upper sum is at most . This proves direct Riemann integrability rather than assuming it. Also by the Lundberg inequality, so the solution is locally bounded. Its renewal representation is , where and ; the residual after iteration tends to zero on compact intervals because sums of positive interarrivals tend to infinity.
Writing , the tilted interarrival expected value is . The key renewal theorem gives the Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptoticIf , the same formula is interpreted as . A positive finite asymptotic constant requires ; this extra integrability is not explicitly stated in the paper.
For the final two-exponential case, evaluate the defective renewal equation at zero:One can identify the adjustment coefficient without silently assuming . For , setIt is finite and positive. Integrating the nonnegative terms of the defective renewal equation, using the Tonelli theorem, first shows that is finite and then givesAs , because . By monotone convergence theorem, . The integrated tail distribution in the classical risk model has density , so by the tail integral formula for moments. Hence solves the adjustment equation, and its stipulated uniqueness implies . Finally the displayed form of gives the remaining constantsIn particular the decay exponent and the coefficient do not affect or . The in these final answers is the printed decay rate, not .