Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 2 6C a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
This is the SIR model with waning immunity. The mass-action interaction term transfers people from the susceptible compartment to the infected compartment, transfers infectives to the recovered compartment, and returns recovered people to susceptibility as immunity wanes. Adding the equations givesso the total population is conserved.
When and infection is rare, andThus initially decays if . Equivalently, the basic reproduction number is , so the epidemic invasion threshold is not crossed and no epidemic occurs.
The susceptible compartment retains individuals, gains recruits per generation and loses through infection. The mass-action interaction term represents new infections generated by encounters between susceptible and infectious individuals. Those new cases form the next infectious compartment, ; the current infectious generation leaves that compartment after one time step.
The initial conditions specify the starting susceptible and infectious counts. The parameter is the transmission coefficient in this deterministic approximation, while supplies new susceptible individuals. This is the discrete susceptible-infective model with recruitment.