Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 ib Paper 1 20H iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-07
The chain is a reversible Markov chain, so detailed balance makes the stationary path probabilityA path contains an ordered occurrence of followed later by exactly when its reversal contains followed later by . These occurrences need not be adjacent. Therefore for every , and in particular the two finite expectations are equal. This is ordered-state visit times in a reversible chain.
To decompose the expectations, distinguish the entrance time , which allows time zero and has , from the positive return convention in part (i). The Strong Markov property at the first visit to or givesEquating them yields the difference formula with . Replacing by in the sum adds , again by Kac's lemma. HenceFor a numerical consistency check, the other entrance times are and , while . Both sides of the displayed identity equal .