Solution (source code)

= Solution

Let $\mathcal G_t=\sigma(X_1,\ldots,X_t)$. Under $P_{\theta_\star}$, the true <probability density function> is positive and finite at every observation almost surely. Define the sequential <likelihood ratio>
$$
M_0=1,\qquad
M_t=\prod_{s=1}^t\frac{p_{\widehat\theta_{s-1}}(X_s)}{p_{\theta_\star}(X_s)}.
$$
A zero numerator sets the product to zero thereafter. Thus $M_t$ is a well-defined nonnegative process, and $L_t(\theta_\star)=\log M_t$, with $\log0=-\infty$.

The next observation is <independent> of $\mathcal G_{s-1}$, while $\widehat\theta_{s-1}$ is <measurable> with respect to that <sigma-algebra>. Its <conditional expectation> is therefore
$$
\begin{aligned}
\mathbb E_{\theta_\star}\left[\left.
\frac{p_{\widehat\theta_{s-1}}(X_s)}{p_{\theta_\star}(X_s)}\right|\mathcal G_{s-1}\right]
&=\int_{\{p_{\theta_\star}>0\}}
p_{\widehat\theta_{s-1}}(x)\,d\mu(x)\\
&\leq1.
\end{aligned}
$$
Consequently $\mathbb E(M_s\mid\mathcal G_{s-1})\leq M_{s-1}$; induction also gives $\mathbb EM_s\leq1$. Thus $(M_t)$ is a nonnegative <supermartingale> for the <filtration> $(\mathcal G_t)$. It need not be a <martingale>: an alternative distribution can put mass outside the support of the true distribution.

The <maximal inequality for a nonnegative supermartingale>, the corresponding form of the <Ville inequality>, gives
$$
\begin{aligned}
\mathbb P_{\theta_\star}\{\exists t\geq0:\theta_\star\notin\Theta_t\}
&=\mathbb P_{\theta_\star}\{\exists t\geq0:L_t(\theta_\star)\geq\log(1/\delta)\}\\
&\leq\mathbb P_{\theta_\star}\{\sup_{t\geq0}M_t\geq1/\delta\}\\
&\leq\boxed{\delta\mathbb EM_0=\delta}.
\end{aligned}
$$
The strict inequality in the definition of the <confidence set> correctly becomes a non-strict crossing event.

There is a minor definitional omission in the source: for false candidates $\theta$, the printed sum of <log-likelihood ratios> can involve $0/0$ or both infinite signs. To define the entire <confidence set> without a positivity assumption, use the logarithm of the ratio of the two full products, $\prod_s p_{\widehat\theta_{s-1}}(X_s)$ and $\prod_s p_\theta(X_s)$, taking $0/a=0$ for $a>0$, $a/0=+\infty$ for $a>0$, and, for example, $0/0=1$. This is a measurable extension of the printed formula wherever that formula is defined. The choice at $0/0$ cannot affect coverage of the truth, since its full denominator is positive almost surely. Alternatively, strict positivity of every density on the common support removes the omission.