Solution (source code)

= Solution

For the numerical <competing risks> update, the estimated probability of remaining event-free just before the tied time is
$$
\widehat S(7.8-)=1-0.285-0.241=0.474.
$$
There were no intervening events, so the <cumulative incidence functions> did not jump between the two stated times. The <Aalen–Johansen estimator> uses the <risk set> immediately before the event time, including the subject censored at that same time under the usual events-before-censoring tie convention. Therefore the cause-$A$ increment is $0.474(2/20)$, and
$$
\boxed{\widehat F_A(7.8)=0.285+0.474\frac2{20}=0.3324.}
$$
For a consistency check, $\widehat F_B(7.8)=0.241+0.474/20=0.2647$ and $\widehat S(7.8)=0.474(1-3/20)=0.4029$; these sum to one. The censoring does not create an incidence jump and leaves $16$ subjects for subsequent follow-up. Dividing by $19$ would instead assume that the censored subject had already left before the event time, contrary to the stated immediately preceding <risk set>. This is a <cumulative incidence update with tied censoring>.