Solution (source code)

= Solution

Partition a regular parameter as $(\psi,\lambda)$, with interest $\psi$ and nuisance $\lambda$. <Orthogonal statistical parameters> have zero cross-block of expected <Fisher information>,
$$
I_{\psi\lambda}=E(U_\psi U_\lambda^{\mathsf T})=-E\ell_{\psi\lambda}=0.
$$
This may hold at one parameter value or throughout a parametrization. It is expected-information orthogonality, and does not generally force the <observed information> cross-block to vanish in each sample.

First, the asymptotic <covariance> of the joint <maximum-likelihood estimator> is the inverse information. Orthogonality makes this matrix block diagonal, giving first-order asymptotic <independence> of interest and nuisance fits. The <efficient information> with unknown nuisance is
$$
I_{\psi\psi\cdot\lambda}=I_{\psi\psi}-I_{\psi\lambda}I_{\lambda\lambda}^{-1}I_{\lambda\psi}.
$$
For orthogonal parameters it equals $I_{\psi\psi}$. Thus estimating the nuisance creates no first-order information loss relative to knowing it, at the orthogonal point. This is a local asymptotic statement, not a general finite-sample <independence> theorem.

Second, orthogonality stabilizes constrained nuisance estimates. Differentiating $\ell_\lambda(\psi,\widetilde\lambda_\psi)=0$ gives
$$
\frac{d\widetilde\lambda_\psi}{d\psi}=-j_{\lambda\lambda}^{-1}j_{\lambda\psi}.
$$
When the expected cross-information vanishes, regular sampling fluctuations give $j_{\lambda\psi}=O_p(\sqrt n)$ and $j_{\lambda\lambda}=O_p(n)$. The <derivative> is therefore $O_p(n^{-1/2})$ locally. Changing the interest parameter by $O_p(n^{-1/2})$ changes its constrained nuisance fit by only $O_p(n^{-1})$, smaller than the ordinary nuisance estimation error. This reduces sensitivity to how the nuisance is fitted and simplifies higher-order <likelihood> adjustments.

For scalar interest, <local orthogonal nuisance reparametrization> can often be constructed explicitly. Keep $\psi$ and write the original nuisance as $\lambda(\psi,\eta)$. The transformed interest score is $U_\psi+\lambda_\psi^{\mathsf T}U_\lambda$. Its <covariance> with the new nuisance score vanishes when
$$
\frac{\partial\lambda}{\partial\psi}=-I_{\lambda\lambda}^{-1}I_{\lambda\psi}.
$$
With smooth nonsingular nuisance information, this ordinary differential equation has a local solution for suitable initial nuisance coordinates. For several interest coordinates the corresponding equations need compatibility conditions; global orthogonality is not automatic.

The normal model gives a transparent example. For independent observations with mean $\mu$ and <variance> $\nu$, direct score expectations give
$$
I_{\mu\mu}=\frac n\nu,\qquad I_{\nu\nu}=\frac n{2\nu^2},\qquad I_{\mu\nu}=0.
$$
The cross-information is zero because the centered normal third <moment> is zero. When fitting $\nu$ at fixed $\mu$,
$$
\widetilde\nu_\mu=\frac1n\sum_i(X_i-\mu)^2=\widehat\nu+(\mu-\overline X)^2,
$$
so the change is indeed quadratic in a local change of the mean.

Orthogonality is also useful for removing nuisance effects beyond first order. Take <variance> $\nu$ as interest and mean $\mu$ as nuisance. Put $Q=\sum_i(X_i-\overline X)^2$. The <profile log-likelihood> is $\ell_p(\nu)=-\tfrac n2\log\nu-Q/(2\nu)$ up to a constant. The constrained mean is $\widetilde\mu_\nu=\overline X$ for all $\nu$, so its sample-coordinate <Jacobian determinant> is one, and $j_{\mu\mu}=n/\nu$. The information adjustment gives
$$
\boxed{\ell_m(\nu)=\ell_p(\nu)-\tfrac12\log(n/\nu)=-\frac{n-1}2\log\nu-\frac Q{2\nu}+\text{constant}.}
$$
This agrees with the exact <likelihood> based on $Q/\nu\sim\chi^2_{n-1}$: estimating the mean has used one degree of freedom. In this setting the <Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood> has the same form. The exact distribution follows by projecting the centered normal vector onto the $(n-1)$-dimensional subspace orthogonal to the constant vector; an <orthonormal basis> there supplies $n-1$ independent standard normal coordinates whose squares sum to $Q/\nu$.

The example shows both the benefit and the limits. Orthogonality organizes first-order precision and nuisance stability; it does not eliminate all higher-order nuisance effects. Nor does it identify an <ancillary statistic> or justify dropping the sample-coordinate factor in every <modified profile likelihood>. In the exponential regression calculation that factor cancels the information adjustment, so an information-only correction would give a different answer.