Solution (source code)

= Solution

It suffices to find a <tree component> of order $k$. Let $X$ count such <graph components> in the <binomial random graph>. The <Cayley formula> and independent <edges> give the <tree-component expectation in the Erdős-Rényi model>
$$
\mu=\mathbb EX=\binom nk k^{k-2}p^{k-1}(1-p)^{k(n-k)+\binom k2-k+1}.
$$
Here $k$ is fixed. The upper bound on $p$ implies $p=O(\log n/n)$, hence $np^2=o(1)$ and
$$
\mu\sim\frac{k^{k-2}}{k!}n^kp^{k-1}e^{-knp}=\frac{k^{k-2}}{k!}n(np)^{k-1}e^{-knp}.
$$
We first verify that this <expected value> diverges throughout the permitted interval, including when $\omega$ grows quickly. If $np\leq1$, the exponential factor is at least $e^{-k}$ and $n^kp^{k-1}\geq\omega^{k-1}$. If $1\leq np\leq(\log n)/(2k)$, then $n(np)^{k-1}e^{-knp}\geq\sqrt n$. Finally, if $np\geq(\log n)/(2k)$, the upper bound on $p$ gives
$$
e^{-knp}\geq\frac{e^\omega}{n(\log n)^{k-1}},\qquad n(np)^{k-1}e^{-knp}\geq\frac{e^\omega}{(2k)^{k-1}}.
$$
Thus $\mu\to\infty$ in all three cases.

For distinct $k$-element <vertex sets> $S,T$, write $I_S,I_T$ for their tree-component indicators. If they overlap, they cannot both be distinct <connected components of a graph>, so $\mathbb E(I_SI_T)=0$. If they are disjoint, the absent <edges> between the two sets are counted twice in the product of their marginal probabilities and once in the joint probability. Therefore
$$
\mathbb E(I_SI_T)=(1-p)^{-k^2}\mathbb EI_S\,\mathbb EI_T.
$$
Summing and discarding the negative overlap contributions yields
$$
\operatorname{Var}X\leq\mu+\mu^2\bigl((1-p)^{-k^2}-1\bigr),\qquad \frac{\operatorname{Var}X}{\mu^2}\leq\frac1\mu+O(p)\longrightarrow0.
$$
The <Chebyshev inequality> now gives $\Pr(X=0)\leq\operatorname{Var}X/\mu^2\to0$. Consequently \b[there is a component of order $k$ with high probability], in fact a <tree component>. The argument proves the entire <fixed-order tree-component window>, rather than only a particular choice of $p$.