Solution (source code)

= Solution

Couple the <uniform random graph process> by giving every possible <edge> an independent uniform label in $[0,1]$ and revealing them in increasing order. The <graph> at label threshold $p$ is a <binomial random graph>. Define $\tau_0$ as the first step with no <isolated vertices> and $\tau_c$ as the first <connected graph>. Deterministically $\tau_c\geq\tau_0$. We prove the reverse inequality <with high probability> by tracking the same process through a short interval.

Put $w=\tfrac14\log\log n$, $p_\pm=(\log n\pm w)/n$, and $L=np_-$. At $p_-$ the <isolated vertex> count $Z$ has
$$
\mathbb EZ=n(1-p_-)^{n-1}\sim e^w\longrightarrow\infty,\qquad \frac{\operatorname{Var}Z}{(\mathbb EZ)^2}\leq\frac1{\mathbb EZ}+\frac{p_-}{1-p_-}\longrightarrow0.
$$
The variance estimate follows by comparing two isolated-vertex indicators, whose joint-to-product probability ratio is $(1-p_-)^{-1}$. Thus $Z>0$ <with high probability>. Also the <Markov inequality> gives $Z\leq\log n$ with probability tending to one.

At this same threshold, exclude every <graph component> with order $2\leq s\leq n/2$. For $2\leq s\leq n/\log n$, any such component contains a <spanning tree>. The <Cayley formula> and a <union bound> therefore give
$$
\Pr(\text{an }s\text{-vertex component exists})\leq\binom ns s^{s-2}p_-^{s-1}(1-p_-)^{s(n-s)}\leq\frac{n}{Ls^2}\left(eL e^{-L(1-s/n)}\right)^s.
$$
In this range the bracket is at most $A=e^2Le^w/n=o(1)$. Summing over $s\geq2$ gives $O(nA^2/L)=O(Le^{2w}/n)=o(1)$. For $n/\log n<s\leq n/2$, even the cut-absence bound is enough:
$$
\binom ns(1-p_-)^{s(n-s)}\leq\left(\frac{en}{s}e^{-L/2}\right)^s\leq\left(e\log n\,n^{-1/2}e^{w/2}\right)^s.
$$
The bracket tends to zero, so this range also has total <probability> $o(1)$. Consequently the graph at $p_-$ consists of one component of order greater than $n/2$ and its isolated-vertex set $S$, where $1\leq|S|\leq\log n$ <with high probability>.

Conditional on the entire graph at $p_-$, every unrevealed edge label remains independently uniform on $(p_-,1)$. In particular,
$$
\Pr(\text{an edge within }S\text{ appears by }p_+\mid G(p_-))\leq\binom{|S|}{2}\frac{p_+-p_-}{1-p_-}=O\left(\frac{(\log n)^2\log\log n}{n}\right)=o(1).
$$
There are no <isolated vertices> at $p_+$ <with high probability>, because their <expected value> is asymptotic to $e^{-w}\to0$. On the intersection of these events, each vertex of $S$ loses isolation by joining the original large component, never by forming a separate small component with another vertex of $S$. At every step between these two thresholds there is therefore one nontrivial component and some isolated vertices. The final isolated vertex disappears precisely when the graph becomes connected. This proves the <connectivity hitting time equals disappearance of isolated vertices> result:
$$
\boxed{\Pr(\tau_c=\tau_0)\longrightarrow1.}
$$

For the critical-window probability, let $p=(\log n+\alpha(n))/n$ with $|\alpha(n)|\leq B$. For each fixed $j$, the <falling factorial> moment of the isolated-vertex count is
$$
\mathbb E(Z)_j=(n)_j(1-p)^{j(n-j)+\binom j2}=e^{-j\alpha(n)}+o(1),
$$
uniformly for such shifts. Apply the <Bonferroni inequalities> to the zero-count event. Its odd and even truncations bracket $\Pr(Z=0)$ by partial sums of $\sum_{j\geq0}(-1)^je^{-j\alpha(n)}/j!$. Since $e^{-\alpha(n)}\leq e^B$, their remainders tend uniformly to zero. Hence $\Pr(Z=0)=e^{-e^{-\alpha(n)}}+o(1)$. The process equality just proved changes this probability by at most its $o(1)$ failure probability. Therefore
$$
\boxed{\Pr(G_{n,p}\text{ connected})=e^{-e^{-\alpha(n)}}+o(1),\qquad \frac{\Pr(G_{n,p}\text{ connected})}{e^{-e^{-\alpha(n)}}}\longrightarrow1.}
$$
The ratio follows because the denominator is bounded below by $e^{-e^B}>0$; no convergence of $\alpha(n)$ is needed.

\b[The printed second conclusion has the complementary denominator and is false as written.] For $\alpha(n)=0$, the printed ratio tends to $e^{-1}/(1-e^{-1})=1/(e-1)\ne1$. Its denominator $1-e^{-e^{-\alpha(n)}}$ is correct for the probability of being disconnected. Thus either remove the leading $1-$ in the denominator or replace “connected” by “disconnected”; the proof supplies both corrected versions.