= Solution
A <Markov control> chooses its action from the current time and state, $a=u(k,x)$, rather than the full past. It gives transition probabilities $P_k^u(x,y)=P(y\mid k,x,u(k,x))$, hence a time-inhomogeneous <Markov chain>.
For any admissible control, the given inequality and conditional expectation imply
$$
V(k,X_k)\leq c(k,X_k,A_k)+\mathbb E[V(k+1,X_{k+1})\mid\mathcal F_k].
$$
Take expectations and sum from zero to $n-1$. The value terms telescope, and $V(n,X_n)=C(X_n)$ gives $V(0,x)\leq\mathbb E_x[\sum_{k<n}c(k,X_k,A_k)+C(X_n)]$. For $u^*$ every inequality is equality, so its cost is exactly $V(0,x)$ and it achieves the lower bound. Thus \b[$u^*$ is optimal]. Boundedness of $V$ and the usual integrability of the costs justify these expectations; the argument even compares it with history-dependent controls.
For the cards, let $r,b$ be the remaining red and black counts, $m=r+b\geq2$. Betting now succeeds with probability $q(r,b)=r(r-1)/[m(m-1)]$. For $m\geq3$, elementary simplification gives
$$
\frac r m q(r-1,b)+\frac b m q(r,b-1)=q(r,b),
$$
with zero-probability transitions omitted when a colour count vanishes. Thus continuing one reveal has exactly the same conditional winning probability as betting now. The backward value function for maximal success probability is $q$ at $m=2$, and induction makes it $q$ at every earlier state: the stop and continue values coincide. Equivalently the conditional success probabilities are a bounded <martingale>, and every permitted stopping time is bounded by the time at which two cards remain.
Therefore \b[any adapted betting rule that makes exactly one bet while at least two cards remain is optimal]; there is no strictly advantageous moment. Betting immediately is one simple optimal rule, with winning probability $26\cdot25/(52\cdot51)=25/102$. The stake size only rescales a fixed payoff, and does not alter this comparison. This is <unchanging betting probability under sampling without replacement>; allowing the player never to bet would be a different problem.
Back to article page