Solution (source code)

= Solution

Write $R_j=I-P_{-j}$. Minimizing the residual sum of squares first over the coefficients of $X_{-j}$ reduces the problem to minimizing $\|R_jY-bR_jX_j\|^2$. Full column rank ensures $R_jX_j\ne0$. Thus the <partial regression> formula and its <variance> are
$$
\boxed{\widehat\beta_j=\frac{X_j^TR_jY}{X_j^TR_jX_j},\qquad\operatorname{var}(\widehat\beta_j)=\frac{\sigma^2}{X_j^TR_jX_j}.}
$$
This uses $R_j^T=R_j=R_j^2$ and the isotropic error <covariance matrix> $\sigma^2I$.

Since the span of $X_k$ is contained in the column space of $X_{-j}$, <orthogonal projection> onto the latter removes at least as much squared norm. Consequently
$$
X_j^TR_jX_j\leq\|X_j\|^2-\frac{(X_k^TX_j)^2}{\|X_k\|^2},
$$
and inversion proves the requested lower bound. Full rank makes the denominator positive.

Adding $c\mathbf1_n$ to column $j\geq2$ leaves the column space unchanged. Every old fitted vector is reproduced by keeping all slopes unchanged and replacing the <regression intercept> by $\widehat\beta_1-c\widehat\beta_j$. Uniqueness of the <ordinary least squares estimators> then proves that slope $j$ is unchanged. In particular all columns can be centered by such changes. Applying the previous projection argument to the centered design proves the bound with $X_j-\bar X_j\mathbf1_n$ and $X_k-\bar X_k\mathbf1_n$; the normalized inner product is now the usual <sample correlation>.

Each reported coefficient test is the two-sided <Student's t-test> of $H_0:\beta_j=0$ against $H_1:\beta_j\ne0$, conditional on the other predictors. Under the null, $\widehat\beta_j/(\widehat\sigma\sqrt{(X^TX)^{-1}_{jj}})$ has a <Student's t-distribution> with $100-3=97$ degrees of freedom. At five percent the intercept is significant, but neither individual test slope is. The final <F-test> compares the full model against an intercept-only model: $H_0:\beta_{\rm Maths}=\beta_{\rm Stats}=0$. It has $(2,97)$ degrees of freedom and rejects at five percent, since its $p$-value is $0.003166$. Thus the predictors jointly explain variation, without strong evidence separating their individual conditional effects.

The two test predictors have <sample correlation> $0.9371630$, although each has only moderate correlation with the final exam response. The <variance inflation factor> is $1/(1-0.9371630^2)\simeq8.22$. Their nearly shared direction produces substantial <multicollinearity>, inflating the individual slope standard errors. The joint <F-test> can detect this common predictive direction even though either coefficient, given the other, has a large $p$-value.