Solution (source code)

= Solution

The relevant <fixed coordinate subspace> is $\{(u,0):u\in\mathbb R^k\}$. Let $G$ be the first $k$ columns of $X$ and let
$$
D=\frac1nG^TG-I_k.
$$
The <Gaussian empirical Gram matrix> $G^TG/n$ is the empirical second moment with the known mean zero; no subtraction of an estimated mean is involved. For $\theta=(u,0)$, the ratio under consideration is $|u^TDu|/\|u\|_2^2$. Since $D$ is a real <symmetric matrix>, the <finite-dimensional spectral theorem> gives
$$
\sup_{u\ne0}\frac{|u^TDu|}{\|u\|_2^2}=\|D\|_{\mathrm{op}}.
$$
Indeed, diagonalizing $D$ bounds every unit-vector <quadratic form> by the largest absolute <eigenvalue>, and a corresponding unit <eigenvector> attains the bound.

We first construct a <unit sphere net from ball covering>. Enlarge the numerical covering constant, if necessary, to $A_0\geq1$. Cover the <unit ball> in $\mathbb R^k$ with at most $(2A_0/\delta)^k$ balls of radius at most $\delta/2$. For each such ball meeting the <unit sphere>, choose a point of the sphere in it and discard the others. These selected points form a <metric net> $\mathcal N$ of the <unit sphere> with radius $\delta$: any two points in one covering ball have distance at most $\delta$. This argument ensures that the net points have unit length even if the original covering centers did not.

Take $\delta=1/4$ and put $B=8A_0$, so $|\mathcal N|\leq B^k$. For unit vectors $u,v$ with $\|u-v\|_2\leq\delta$,
$$
|u^TDu-v^TDv|=|(u-v)^TDu+v^TD(u-v)|\leq2\delta\|D\|_{\mathrm{op}}.
$$
Taking a net point for every unit $u$ and then a supremum proves the <quadratic form net bound>
$$
\|D\|_{\mathrm{op}}\leq\frac1{1-2\delta}\max_{v\in\mathcal N}|v^TDv|=2\max_{v\in\mathcal N}|v^TDv|.
$$
It follows that
$$
\{\|D\|_{\mathrm{op}}>1/2\}\subseteq\bigcup_{v\in\mathcal N}\{|v^TDv|>1/4\}.
$$

Fix $v\in\mathcal N$. The rows of $G$ are <independent> vectors of <independent> random variables with the <standard normal distribution>, and $\|v\|_2=1$. Their scalar products with $v$ are therefore <independent> $N(0,1)$ variables $g_1,\ldots,g_n$, so
$$
v^TDv=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n(g_i^2-1).
$$
Use the supplied <chi-squared concentration inequality> with $z=n/1024$. Its threshold is
$$
4(\sqrt{nz}+z)=4n\left(\frac1{32}+\frac1{1024}\right)=\frac{33n}{256}<\frac n4.
$$
Consequently $P(|v^TDv|>1/4)\leq2e^{-n/1024}$. The <union bound> gives the stronger fixed-subspace estimate
$$
P(\|D\|_{\mathrm{op}}>1/2)\leq2\exp\left(k\log B-\frac n{1024}\right).
$$
This is <Gaussian Gram matrix concentration on a fixed subspace>.

Since $1\leq k<p$, we have $p\geq2$. Under $n\geq Ck\log p$,
$$
\frac n{1024}-k\log B\geq\left(\frac C{1024}-\frac{\log B}{\log2}\right)k\log p.
$$
Choose the numerical constant $C\geq1024(1+\log B/\log2)$. Then the parenthesis is at least one, so \b[$C'=1$ is a valid choice], and
$$
\boxed{P\left(\sup_{\theta\in\mathbb R_k^p,\,\theta\ne0}\left|\frac{\theta^T\widehat\Sigma\theta-\theta^T\theta}{\theta^T\theta}\right|>\frac12\right)\leq2e^{-k\log p}.}
$$
The covering factor is only $B^k$ because the coordinate subspace is fixed. The ambient dimension enters through the assumed sample-size bound.