= Solution
The <Poisson deviance> tests overall fit against the saturated <Poisson regression>, not whether the single slope is zero. Under fit.1, its large-count approximation is $\chi^2_{60-2}=\chi^2_{58}$. The observed value is 261.72, far above the one-percent upper critical value (about 85.95); its upper-tail probability is about $1.14\times10^{-27}$. Thus \b[reject fit.1 at the one-percent level]. The slope's reported $p$-value 0.421 only compares this inadequate log-linear trend with an intercept-only model; it is not a <goodness-of-fit test>.
Back to article page