Solution (source code)

= Solution

Put $t_i=x_i^T\beta$ and $s_i=2Y_i-1\in\{-1,1\}$. The <probit regression> likelihood is $\prod_i\Phi(s_it_i)$, so with the stated normal prior,
$$
\log p(\beta\mid Y)=\text{constant}-\frac{\|\beta\|^2}{2\sigma^2}+\sum_i\log\Phi(s_ix_i^T\beta).
$$
Differentiating gives the <probit posterior score>
$$
\boxed{g(\beta)=-\frac\beta{\sigma^2}+\sum_i s_ix_i\frac{\phi(s_ix_i^T\beta)}{\Phi(s_ix_i^T\beta)}.}
$$
Equivalently, the $i$th likelihood term is $x_i\phi(t_i)[Y_i/\Phi(t_i)-(1-Y_i)/(1-\Phi(t_i))]$. The prior's gradient is essential.

This <posterior density> is smooth, positive everywhere, and bounded above by a constant times the Gaussian prior, since the likelihood is at most one and has positive normalizing constant. Its derivatives are integrable: differentiating a likelihood factor gives a bounded normal density, and differentiating the prior gives a linear factor times a Gaussian. Integration by parts therefore yields
$$
\mathbb E[g_j(\beta)\mid Y]=\int_{\mathbb R^p}\partial_jp(\beta\mid Y)\,d\beta=0.
$$
Thus each component has a known zero <expected value> and can be used as a <posterior score control variate>. This identity differentiates the posterior density in the random parameter; it is distinct from the usual <mean-zero score identity> for a likelihood under repeated sampling.

The requisite second moments are finite. For $t\geq0$, $\phi(t)/\Phi(t)$ is bounded. For $t<0$,
$$
\Phi(t)\geq\int_{t-1}^t\phi(u)\,du\geq\phi(t-1),\qquad
\frac{\phi(t)}{\Phi(t)}\leq e^{-t+1/2}.
$$
Hence the score grows at most exponentially in $\|\beta\|$, and the Gaussian upper bound on the posterior gives finite second moments. For a fixed vector $a$, averaging $h(\beta)-a^Tg(\beta)$ is therefore an unbiased <Monte Carlo estimator> of the same mean; suitable coefficients can reduce its <variance>.