Multiplicative upcrossing supermartingale 2026-10-14
Start with cash one, switch to when a nonnegative supermartingale first reaches at most , and switch to cash when it next reaches at least . Repeat with coefficients multiplied by after every completed upcrossing. At each switch the new value is at most the old one, so pasting supermartingales with downward jumps gives a supermartingale when stopped after any fixed number of switches. Its initial value is , and its value at the th completed crossing is exactly . Applying its expected value bound proves the Dubins upcrossing inequality.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 29 6 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Interpret the comparison at on ; values at an infinite stopping time are not required. The stopping time events make adapted, and gives integrability. On the next value is . On it is unless , and on that latter event switching only decreases the value. Consequently the pointwise inequalityholds even though need not be known at time . Both indicators displayed here are -measurable. Taking conditional expectations and using the two supermartingale inequalities therefore givesThus This proves pasting supermartingales with downward jumps without incorrectly treating the future switching event as predictable.