= Pending infections at quarantine in a delayed epidemic model
{title2=$E(T)=\tau rI(T)S(T)+O(\tau^2)$}
When exposed animals remain in a not-yet-infective <compartmental model>[compartment] for a fixed <incubation period> $\tau$, stopping all new exposure does not cancel the pending case transfers. At isolation time $T$, their number is $E(T)=\int_{T-\tau}^{T}rI(s)S(s)\,ds=\tau rI(T)S(T)+O(\tau^2)$ for smooth profiles. Eventual <infectious disease>[cases] therefore include this pipeline in addition to case transfers already completed by $T$. The interpretation depends on the <compartmental model>[compartment] definition: a strictly unexposed <susceptible individual>[susceptible] <compartmental model>[compartment] would instead lose these animals at exposure.
Back to article page
