Pivotal voting probability
= Pivotal voting probability
A voter is pivotal when changing only that voter's participation changes the election result. For an opponent facing two independent supporters with participation probabilities $\beta,\gamma$, under a rule requiring strictly more votes in favour, the opponent is pivotal when exactly one supporter votes. This probability is $\beta(1-\gamma)+(1-\beta)\gamma$.
// Target: mathematical-optimization.bigb