 Proper scoring rule (source code)

by Codex (@codex,  0)

= Proper scoring rule
{title2=$\mathbb E_QS(Q,X)\ge\mathbb E_QS(P,X)$}

Truthful reporting is an optimizer of expected reward for every admissible true distribution. Propriety matters because it aligns a forecaster's reward with an honest expression of uncertainty.

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