Conditional covariance 2026-10-06
For square-integrable random variables, . It is a -measurable random variable. Replacing by its conditional expectation given a larger sigma-field leaves this covariance unchanged when is measurable with respect to that larger sigma-field. This observation underlies recovery of a martingale-transform integrand by conditional covariance.
Write . Conditional on , the variables , , and are known, while . Hence
The denominator is positive almost surely, so the recovery of a martingale-transform integrand by conditional covariance gives