Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 44 3 f Solution 2026-10-14
After measurements the normal-normal conjugacy formulas areThe upper monitoring limit is . Its center moves toward the athlete's own mean and the population's influence diminishes. Its predictive width decreases toward , since uncertainty about the mean vanishes but the next measurement's error remains. The absolute upper limit need not decrease monotonically: its center can move upward or downward with the observations. This is sequential normal predictive monitoring.