Let be the true seroprevalence at age , and the force of infection, meaning the instantaneous rate of a first infection among people still uninfected. In an irreversible serocatalytic model, people begin seronegative and retain detectable antibodies after infection. Their seronegative fraction obeys
Hence
Equivalently, where differentiation is possible, . This identifies the force of infection as a hazard function and as the survival function for remaining uninfected. For constant exposure , . A single calendar-time survey reflects each birth cohort's accumulated exposure; interpreting the same age curve as a timeless age effect requires assumptions about historical transmission.
Serocatalytic model 2026-10-20
An irreversible serocatalytic model describes the transition from seronegative to seropositive after infection. If the force of infection is and detectable antibodies persist, the seronegative fraction satisfies , hence seroprevalence is when . Antibody loss needs a reverse transition, and imperfect testing needs a separate observation model.