Trace plot (source code)

= Trace plot

A <trace plot> displays an observable along successive iterations of a <Markov chain Monte Carlo> algorithm. Its horizontal axis is iteration and its vertical axis is the observed parameter or function value. Trends suggest an initial transient or slow exploration, separated regimes suggest transitions between <posterior> regions, and exact plateaus show repeated states. The plot should be read with acceptance statistics, <autocorrelation> and multiple starting states; its visual appearance alone cannot prove <stationarity> or identify the unique cause of poor mixing.