Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 36 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Fix and put . Since , the clock in part (a) is at most on . The Poisson maximal concentration bound gives, for every ,Here for , so the probabilities are summable in . The Borel-Cantelli lemma, first for positive rational and then for all , yields almost surely. No independence between the processes for different population sizes is required.
The deterministic SI model solves the logistic equation with , givingOn , is Lipschitz continuous with constant . Subtracting the two integral equations givesThe Gronwall inequality impliesThis is the uniform almost-sure fluid limit of the SI model. One can take the intersection of the probability-one events for integer to obtain the conclusion on every finite interval. Use population sizes with integral; if the initial susceptible count is rounded, the extra initial error is at most and the same Gronwall inequality proof applies.
