Fix and put . Since , the clock in part (a) is at most on . The Poisson maximal concentration bound gives, for every ,
Here for , so the probabilities are summable in . The Borel-Cantelli lemma, first for positive rational and then for all , yields almost surely. No independence between the processes for different population sizes is required.
The deterministic SI model solves the logistic equation with , giving
On , is Lipschitz continuous with constant . Subtracting the two integral equations gives
The Gronwall inequality implies
This is the uniform almost-sure fluid limit of the SI model. One can take the intersection of the probability-one events for integer to obtain the conclusion on every finite interval. Use population sizes with integral; if the initial susceptible count is rounded, the extra initial error is at most and the same Gronwall inequality proof applies.
Figure 1.
Susceptible fractions in stochastic SI epidemics approach the deterministic fluid limit
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