Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 209 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the same as in part (a). The error of the weighted realized variance splits into its centered fluctuation and its deterministic quadrature error:The Hölder continuity of controls this bias:Since , the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error has no cross term. Part (a) therefore givesHence is a universal choice. This argument separately controls the statistical fluctuation and the Riemann sum approximation.
Spot variance 2026-10-06
The spot variance is the instantaneous squared noise coefficient of an Itô integral. It can be estimated by averaging the weighted realized variance over a shrinking time window. A Hölder continuity assumption bounds the smoothing bias.