 Bühlmann–Straub credibility factor

The experience weight is $Z=Wa/(Wa+v)$, where $W$ is total observed exposure, $a$ the variance of hypothetical means, and $v$ the expected process variance. With positive $a$, it is $W/(W+v/a)$. More exposure raises the weight; larger process noise lowers it. If $a=0$, the unknown conditional mean is constant and one can set $Z=0$.