Conditional and stationary AR1 likelihood estimators
ID: conditional-and-stationary-ar1-likelihood-estimators
Conditioning on the first observation of a centered autoregressive process of order one makes the maximum-likelihood estimator of its coefficient the least-squares ratio above, when the optimum is interior. The stationary initial normal distribution contributes an additional factor and quadratic term . These change the exact maximizer, but for a fixed interior stationary parameter their score is order one while the conditional score has order , giving the same leading estimator.
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