Conditional Markov inequality with a measurable threshold

ID: conditional-markov-inequality-with-a-measurable-threshold

If is an integrable random variable and is a finite, strictly positive -measurable random variable, then
Indeed, . Monotonicity of conditional expectation and the measurable-factor rule for conditional expectation give
Division by the strictly positive proves the claim. Only the displayed product needs to be an integrable random variable; neither nor needs to have finite expected value. The measurable threshold represents information already available before asking how likely the remaining exceedance is.

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