Conditional power moments of a continuous geometric Asian average

ID: conditional-power-moments-of-a-continuous-geometric-asian-average

Let for a positive geometric Brownian motion in the non-dividend-paying Black-Scholes model, and put . Under the risk-neutral measure, the future log-average is
The final integral is a centred normal variable independent of the past, with variance . Applying the moment-generating function of a normal distribution proves the displayed identity for every real . Multiplication by prices the payoff . The historical average must remain a state variable; terminal stock price alone does not determine this payoff.

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