Geometric continuation after an initial tie

ID: geometric-continuation-after-an-initial-tie

Suppose a contest uses trials initially and ends there with probability . Conditional on an initial tie, independent further rounds each use trials and resolve the contest with a fixed probability . The number of further rounds, conditional on that tie, has a geometric distribution: for . Thus the total number of trials has an atom at and the displayed probabilities thereafter. The geometric series sums to , so termination has probability one, and the expected value is . The displayed distribution requires independence of the future rounds from the initial tie.

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