Multiplicative upcrossing supermartingale
ID: multiplicative-upcrossing-supermartingale
Start with cash one, switch to when a nonnegative supermartingale first reaches at most , and switch to cash when it next reaches at least . Repeat with coefficients multiplied by after every completed upcrossing. At each switch the new value is at most the old one, so pasting supermartingales with downward jumps gives a supermartingale when stopped after any fixed number of switches. Its initial value is , and its value at the th completed crossing is exactly . Applying its expected value bound proves the Dubins upcrossing inequality.
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