Negative minimal density in an arbitrage-free one-period market

ID: negative-minimal-density-in-an-arbitrage-free-one-period-market

Let a discounted gain take values with physical probabilities . Then and , so the minimal martingale measure in a one-period market has signed density . Nevertheless is a strictly positive pricing probability with zero mean gain. Thus absence of arbitrage does not ensure positivity of the minimal density. The minimum-norm identity holds for signed pricing densities; interpretation as a dominated martingale measure requires nonnegativity.

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