Nested conditioning keeps the coarser information
ID: nested-conditioning-keeps-the-coarser-information
For integrable random variable and nested sub-sigma-algebras , the tower property saysThe finer-information conditional mean can be averaged within each coarser group, recovering the coarser-information conditional mean. Conversely, conditioning an already -measurable conditional mean on leaves it unchanged. Both orders therefore recover when the information is nested.[ref]
For the finite example in law of total expectation, exact knowledge of gives the finer mean itself. Averaging within the groups recovers two and eight. Forgetting the group then gives . The nesting condition is essential; iterated conditional expectation over nonnested sigma-algebras describes why arbitrary successive conditioning cannot simply be replaced by conditioning on an intersection.
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