For TA=Tm+ΔTcos(t/τ) and FO=λO(TO−Tm), put r=FO/(λAΔT). Open-water freezing requires r<1 and starts at t1=τarccos(−r). Neglecting oceanheat during growth is a bulk approximation when r(1+λAhm/k)≪1. It cannot hold pointwise at the onset or maximum, where the atmospheric removal and ocean input are comparable. The actual maximum satisfies −cos(t2/τ)=r[1+λAh(t2)/k]; neglecting FO gives t2=3πτ/2.