 Solution

False. Let $\varphi$ be $x_i\dot{=}{x}_i$ and let $t=x_j$ with $j\ne i$. There is no quantifier that could capture a variable, so $t$ is free for $x_i$ in $\varphi$. Capture-avoiding substitution givesThe number of occurrences of $x_i$ falls from two to zero, contradicting the proposed strict increase. Even capture-avoiding substitution of $x_i$ itself would leave the formula unchanged and refute the strict inequality.