Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-martingales-and-financial-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/a/3/b/iii/solution

The optional stopping theorem applies to at the bounded stopping time . As , it yields the valid stopped second-moment identity for a simple symmetric random walk
The printed bound on is false. Before hitting the positive level , the walk can travel arbitrarily far downwards, so is unavailable.
Here is a valid proof of finiteness of . For a positive integer , stop instead at . The same identity and the bound give
The monotone convergence theorem makes , so almost surely. Applying optional stopping to at and then using dominated convergence gives . Since , this means
Consequently for every , and letting proves almost surely.
In fact this is the infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk. If , the first displayed identity would bound the second moments of uniformly. Their uniform integrability and their almost sure convergence to would imply . But the optional stopping theorem applied to at every bounded makes each expectation zero, a contradiction. Hence the correct conclusion is

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