Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematical-and-computational-biology-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2025/paper-1/2/d/solution

Test the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis that the two rate parameters differ. Under , the pooled maximum-likelihood estimate is . Under the alternative, the estimates are and .
In the likelihood-ratio test statistic, the data-only terms cancel, and both fitted models have total . Consequently,
The alternative hypothesis adds one parameter, so Wilks theorem gives an approximate chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom. Do not reject the common-rate model at the 5% level, since . The corresponding approximate p-value is . The fitted expected values are and days, but four observations per group supply little evidence that the underlying expected values differ; failure to reject does not establish equality. The chi-squared distribution calibration is asymptotic and should be treated cautiously for these small samples.

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