Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematical-and-computational-biology-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2025/paper-1/4/d/solution

Yes. The bootstrap confidence interval for the age coefficient, , excludes zero and supports the same positive association. A well-implemented parametric bootstrap can give better finite-sample calibration than the asymptotic likelihood-ratio test, especially with only eleven year groups and estimated variance components. Its advantage depends on simulating the full fitted Gaussian linear mixed model and refitting correctly; resampling individual records as if they were independent would discard the grouping. A bootstrap confidence interval is also not literally the same procedure as a bootstrap-calibrated test.
The bird-level standard deviation is appreciable, with interval hatchlings, whereas the year-level estimate is much less precise, with interval . The residual standard deviation is approximately –. Boundary fits in 23 of the 1000 replicates indicate that at least one fitted variance component sometimes reaches zero; the convergence warning should also be investigated before trusting the reported intervals. Neither the asymptotic test nor a model-based bootstrap repairs incorrect response-distribution or mean-structure assumptions.

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